Re:Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier...
by IAmEveryone on Thursday April 16, 2020 @08:12PM
(#22894950)
Let’s assume 100% in NY are or have been infected. 12,000 deaths / 20 million = 0.0006% fatality.
Then scale that up to US population outside N.Y.: 18,0000 deaths / 0,0006 = 3,000,000 infected out of 300,000,000 for an infection rate of... 1%.
Herd immunity takes about 66% to 70%. So: only 65% to 69% to go, or about 200,000 deaths.
Lower the assumed infection rate in NY to anything realistic and it only gets worse. For (still high) 20% you’re looking at a million deaths to achieve herd immunity.
Then scale that up to US population outside N.Y.: 18,0000 deaths / 0,0006 = 3,000,000 infected out of 300,000,000 for an infection rate of... 1%.
Herd immunity takes about 66% to 70%. So: only 65% to 69% to go, or about 200,000 deaths.
Lower the assumed infection rate in NY to anything realistic and it only gets worse. For (still high) 20% you’re looking at a million deaths to achieve herd immunity.