I don't really believe this. There was a "back to normal" after 20% of the human race died off in the Spanish Flu pandemic, and we're not going to lose 20% this time.

I've thought about this a lot and I think once things are safer (everyone got it, there's a vaccine, whatever), people are going to go back to normal. People are dying to eat at a restaurant. They have watched 100s of hours of travel vlogs and want to visit the places they've learned about while locked inside.

I guess I'll pick apart each "technology" point this article makes:

> Working from home

I think employers are probably seeing a massive drop-off in productivity with everyone at home, and are probably going to want to go back to normal. They have 10 year leases and probably want to get some value out of that.

> Telemedicine and online learning

Telemedicine has been pushed aggressively on me through my insurance plan. I've never used it; I never have those problems where I just need to see a doctor to get drugs. I either have a cold and there's nothing they can do, or I have to go in to get allergy shots. I don't see telemedicine helping me much there. (I suppose if someone mailed me a flu shot, I could do it myself, though.)

> Regulatory barriers to online tools will fall

I think things are going in the opposite direction. See the "EARN IT Act".

> Cyber-crime will increase.

I doubt it. More and more tools are becoming available to make systems easier to secure. You get mTLS for free with GKE, and languages and libraries are getting better. TLS certificates have never been easier to get. Browsers have never been more likely to drop shady CAs. Even governments have a hard time intercepting traffic for criminal investigations. Things are far from perfect, but they're getting better. A bunch of people with the flu doesn't change that.

> VR tools will flourish

Maybe, maybe not. VR tools are expensive, and nobody's going to spend a million dollars on a house after seeing a photoshopped virtual tour. They are going to show up in person before writing the check. It might not be possible to buy a house in person at this exact instant, but someday it will be.

Meanwhile, people seem to be enjoying Beat Saber -- COVID or not.

> Collective intelligence and open science.

No idea whether anything changes here. Arxiv exited before the pandemic, and will exist after the pandemic.

> Interest in digital trust will increase

Yeah probably. This is why people use Facebook Messenger instead of Email. Less spam, because you can ban accounts. Again, I don't see a connection to COVID-19 here.

> The trend towards online shopping has hugely accelerated.

I can count on one hand the number of times I've gone to a store to buy something in the last decade. The trend is already here. (I do love things like B&H and Microcenter for same-day purchases, but I have never walked into B&H just to browse. The only thing I know about that store is where to pick up my online order.)

> Food security concerns will prompt increased interest in AgTech.

Maybe. I went grocery shopping today and everything seemed normal. I managed to get meat, frozen pizzas, and bread that isn't hot dog buns for the first time since the outbreak. Will some computer program improve this situation? Maybe?

> More people will surrender personal data to help the common good.

They already surrender it to help random tech companies. 2020 is a census year and everyone is mailing in their personal information to the government. (They did it in 2010, and 2000, and 1990, and 1980, and...) Don't see a big change here.

> "AI is reinventing the way we invent"

Yes, fund my startup, we use "AI". Totally new idea, all due to the pandemic.

> We are seeing an increase in 'frugal innovation'.

People have been hacking together industrial equipment on the cheap pretty much forever. You can find articles on how to build your own CNC mill, atomic clock, single-board computer... whatever you want. This is nothing new. (Prusa sure did a good job marketing the whole "we printed out some curved pieces of plastic". But people have been making neat things with 3D printers for quite a while.)

TL;DR: I regret reading clicking this link and I regret replying to this drivel. But it's too late, so now I'm clicking "add comment".