Lenders have already tightened up loan requirements which will decrease the demand part of the equation. It is the same thing that happened during the great recession. People may want to buy, but have no ability to do so. There's also the high unemployment rate and foreign investors liquidating inventory for capital because their country is also going through a downturn. All the ibuyers have stopped purchasing. If the stock market drops, 10% of buyers who use their 401k or IRA for their downpayment will probably dry up.

I don't see any situation where the housing market doesn't drop.

That said I believe the drop after 2008 should have been more significant. The massive amount of cash the government pumps into markets, it allows massive amounts of dark/shadow inventory that would cause further price drops if the market was transparent.

>Plus supply in the tank because people aren’t moving.

One of the complicated things about housing prices is that people do (mostly) need to live somewhere. Yes, there are homeless and yes people move back in with family etc. But, for the most part, the people getting laid off from, say, Bay Area tech jobs aren't immediately picking up and moving to some cheap city in the Midwest. Especially if they already own a house.