The death rate isn't likely to be that high (even without medical treatment), but if even a million Americans die, that's a cost of $10T to the economy right there.
You can easily why see shutting things down to prevent all those deaths is worth it.
We did it because risking 30M pneumonia victims was unthinkable, even before we count the extra heart attack/assault/cancer victims while the hospitals collapse.
The numbers work out; it's absolutely worth shutting down the economy for some number of months to prevent the loss of a million lives. Obviously the numbers don't work out to do so indefinitely, but for the one month so far and the upcoming few, definitely.
And yes assuming immunity, which seems likely to be the case for most people, even if not permanent.
*assuming survival