Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by azakai on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @10:45PM
(#22873939)
> Around 200 million Americans will eventually get it, barring extraordinary events (like a vaccine arriving in 6 months). We cannot change this.
We don't know that's inevitable. Korea, Japan and Taiwan suggest another outcome is possible, and while a vaccine may not arrive in 6 months, lots of other things might: better treatments, better masks, better testing, better tracing, etc.
> Around 0.5% will die, overwhelmingly those who had a low remaining life expectancy to begin with. This is a much larger body count than most people seem able to accept, but also much less dangerous to the average American than many believe.
Death isn't the only metric. A lot more than those dying will be the amount of people that are hospitalized in very serious shape. Some of them will have long-term damage, and some of them will die if the hospitals are overwhelmed.
We don't know that's inevitable. Korea, Japan and Taiwan suggest another outcome is possible, and while a vaccine may not arrive in 6 months, lots of other things might: better treatments, better masks, better testing, better tracing, etc.
> Around 0.5% will die, overwhelmingly those who had a low remaining life expectancy to begin with. This is a much larger body count than most people seem able to accept, but also much less dangerous to the average American than many believe.
Death isn't the only metric. A lot more than those dying will be the amount of people that are hospitalized in very serious shape. Some of them will have long-term damage, and some of them will die if the hospitals are overwhelmed.