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Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by ericd on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @05:03PM (#22871415)
The best poker players lose hands all the time. But over time, they win consistently against less talented players.

Talent increases your surface area to catch luck.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by viklove on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @05:24PM (#22871644)
Not if you go broke on your first or second hand. Most of us only have enough cash to play one or two hands. If you're the son/daughter of a million/billionaire though, you get to play way more hands, and thus have a much better chance of being successful.

Talent doesn't increase surface area, it increases the probability of success. Wealth is the only thing that can increase surface area. See the problem here?

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by sg47 on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @06:04PM (#22872064)
Why are you going 'all in' in your first or second hand?
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by danans on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @07:40PM (#22872789)
To continue the metaphor, the table stakes at the tables that provide the big payoffs require the average person to go "all-in".

Whereas a billionaire usually gambles on the margins of their wealth. They definitely don't gamble with the roof over their head or their next meal, or their childrens' security. They can make any non-ergodic game appear ergodic for longer since they can survive many losing hands for far longer than others.