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Re:Senate Stock Watcher by BurningFrog on Friday April 10, 2020 @09:51PM (#22839106)
> It's pretty easy to cheat the system with a long only portfolio, if you're truly controlling the system: cause a deflation

Causing a deflation is very hard, unless possibly if you control the fed.

And that's for the government as a whole. I'd be very surprised if an individual senator can't affect that meaningfully.

Compare that to the current system where a senator hears about huge news that will move individual stock prices next week, and can easily make huge profits.

Re:Senate Stock Watcher by H8crilA on Friday April 10, 2020 @09:54PM (#22839120)
You agree with me that it's mostly about insider trading, not about skin in the game.

Deflation is not that hard, just dampen social security. Or stop half of military contracts and half of infrastructure spend. Or just go to the federal budget and do anything to reduce it by > 30%. You'll have a deflation (a recession) in a month, even before those changes actually go into effect.

Re:Senate Stock Watcher by chii on Friday April 10, 2020 @09:59PM (#22839135)
> Deflation is not that hard, just dampen social security

classic HN backseat driver - everything is easy, "just" do XYZ.

Re:Senate Stock Watcher by H8crilA on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:03PM (#22839152)
The US federal budget is 21% of US GDP. Reduce it by 30%, that will cause a 7% drop in GDP and a deflationary recession. Reduce it by 50% and you have a 10% drop, very substantial. I really don't understand what's difficult about this.

You can also jack up taxes and start paying off govt debt instead of spending it on something new. Would have similar effects.

If you think I'm wrong please write why or post a link with some economic thought, would be curious to read.

Re:Senate Stock Watcher by sk5t on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:26PM (#22839227)
The gist is that you will not be able to move the needle with any effectiveness. Reduce the federal budget by 30% by force of will, or what? This is "first, convert 1kg lead to 1kg gold" level thinking.
Re:Senate Stock Watcher by H8crilA on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:39PM (#22839284)
I agree. That's what I mean by "it seems to be more for you guys about insider trading than about skin in the game".

Edit: I think I understood it. You mean that broad, "macro-like" allocation would prohibit shenanigans with assets in narrower domains, like for example when a congressman successfully pushes a particular drugs-related law that has very big impact on a some particular pharma company. It is more realistic that they can change a single paragraph in some act than they can throw out 30% of the federal budget to "finally start paying back our enormous national debt".

Re:Senate Stock Watcher by ojbyrne on Friday April 10, 2020 @10:56PM (#22839339)
My understanding is that it’s easy to start deflation. But it’s hard to stop deflation.
Re:Senate Stock Watcher by walshemj on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:27AM (#22842152)
screws anyone with a loan / mortgage