I've been tracking DPH reports in our state since they started, and one thing I've noticed is that although the case counts have gone up, the probability of testing positive has remained roughly constant. It's increased slightly here in the last week or so but not a lot.
One thing this suggests to me is that at least here, the virus was present in significant numbers before they started testing, or at least in similar numbers.
If you combine that with consistent reports of substantial fractions of asymptomatic carriers, it seems very plausible to me that the virus was circulating before authorities in the US started tracking it.
It wasn't until the shutdown occurred that I read about the symptoms and noted that shortness of breath was a tell-tale symptom. I also worked at a place with offices in Shanghai and many Chinese nationals working locally.
And now I remembered 5-7 days before any cold-like symptoms started, I was at a couple work functions that included our entire US office. (So there's the possible trans-atlantic link)
I'm also waiting for an antibody test purely because of that weird experience.
I wasn't working at the time, but it was minor enough that I would have gone to work. That is also very rare for me, usually I am out of commission for a week when I get a cold.
Was it Coronavirus? I have no way of knowing. But looking back, it seems very suspicious. An extra-infectious cold with the same symptoms of Coronavirus going around the New York office populated by people that travel internationally extensively? You have to wonder.
I kind of assume that Coronavirus cases are massively underreported. Given that 20% of cases are people without symptoms, what would prompt them to get tested? And all the advice I've read is along the lines of "if you think you have it, don't get tested, just stay home and get over it". With that advice, I have to assume that many cases are not accounted for in the official data. It does seem strange to me that if Coronavirus was circulating in New York in mid-February that it didn't show up at all until early March "officially", though. It's unlikely that not one person would have severe symptoms. For that reason, I assume I'm not immune and am self-isolating like everyone else... but if I can get an antibody test, I would love one. I am very curious as to what happened there.