I don't think it is - I think you can write "x is like y" but you have to understand and explain why. Otherwise I can say "a hippo is like a bright blue sky" and then claim that I am right! I don't think that this is like modelling the impact of a butterfly on storms - I think this is more like modelling the diffusion of a bottle of dye in a swimming pool.

Grandparent is somewhat nonsensical, but I think what they were trying to say is that since human society is a highly dynamical system, it's not really possible to have a highly accurate model to represent how COVID-19 is going to spread. The best we can do is use naive models and plan around worst-case scenarios.

But we know really quite accurately how people en-mass move and associate prior to intervention. The proper models are using this information.