Logically, that would extend to people whose job revolves around signing up restaurants to marketing portals. The restaurants that have an online business are already there. Those that don't have an online business are already closed.
Programmers arent as easy to replace because they already understand the system. Training takes time, and if there's not enough documentation then you'll end up contacting the previous programmers for help (I've seen it happen) anyway.
The thing that truly influences "hard to hire" is supply and demand. With the influx of bootcamps Software engineering supply has increased and with COVID-19 decreasing demand Engineers may no longer have the luxury of picking and choosing like they used to.
I'm an engineer btw. Just viewing the situation from a realistic lens.
While the supply has increased, the number of senior engineers hasn't grown at the same pace. I know of companies who've fired even their senior engineers, but they've been hit particularly hard by this crisis (think 'business model is literally rendered invalid' level of affected). Most people who think they'll be able to weather at least the next six months will be reluctant to fire more experienced engineers, because they know how hard it was to hire them to begin with.
While some of the options might be gone, chances are people who get laid off or are still in the market will look for companies with better chances of surviving this (think Google, Apple, Facebook, etc.), so the pool of experienced talent might actually be reduced for startups.
In other words: people with 5 years of industry experience are playing in a completely different arena than more junior engineers, who are unfortunately in a more precarious situation.
The logic is sound, you have a point. But I think it doesn't play out this way in reality. Maybe it's like this for your current company, but is that the general trend?
I know that during the dot com bubble bursting many years ago what you said was not the case. Could be different now but do you have any other supporting evidence?
Mind you the situation is different now so what you say could be right in a certain way.