Does anyone else think NY called their peak prematurely? It seems like there's some periodicity in the data and there's always a slight two day drop every 7 days. This makes sense since many people are still working mon-fri in the city.

This is for NYC specifically (last few days of data are incomplete): https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

I wouldn't be surprised if NY continued surging in the coming days.

Also, I wonder, could there be any effect of a population decrease from an exodus from NYC?

So the assumption here is that New York will be the last big outbreak in the US.

The actual assumption is that with current social distancing, any outbreak will die down on its own on approximable dynamics. There is good evidence that this is so.

When we end social distancing, all bets are off. See http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epi... to see that they are painfully aware of this and are explicitly not trying to model that.

All right, that seems much more reasonable to me. Thought you said the peak for the USA in general was imminent, and that's not at all obvious given that the social distancing policies going forward have yet to be decided.

It might be the case, but that assumes that effective measures to control the epidemic will keep being applied everywhere.