You need to look at excess mortality. Currently we have a lot more people dying than normal. We know this because we're building temporary emergency mortuaries. Maybe these would have died within a year or two, but they're not, they're dying right now.

When someone has a heart attack and dies how do we know they had covid-19? We're mostly not testing people. We don't test the dead people. So we know or suspect they have covid-19 before they die. This is not a bunch of asymptomatic people dropping dead from expected causes then being labelled as covid-19 deaths, it's a bunch of people with severe symptoms who are dying and having multiple causes listed on the certificate, one of which will be covid-19.

Here's a useful thread that looks at the "they would have died anyway" comments: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

> now that currently if someone dies, say on Heart Disease, and has positively tested on Covid-19, that the death cause is counted as Covid-19.

We know that covid-19 causes myocarditis, and that this is a significant cause of death for lots of covid-19 patients.