Re:Why the Dollar's Reign Is Near an End
by jerf on Wednesday March 02, 2011 @01:34PM
(#2280595)
The decline of the dollar is a choice that we are making by spending with wild abandon with no heed to the consequences (and indeed, somehow managing to convince quite a lot of us that we have some sort of moral imperative to bankrupt ourselves because not spending like drunken sailors is somehow morally wrong... to be honest I have a hard time following this argument, it's long since become unmoored from even Keynesian economic theory which at least had some basis in reality and is now just some vaguely moral imperative to spend spend spend). If we, you know, stop that, there isn't really a credible competitor on the horizon that could dethrone the dollar for quite a while. We're not talking about competition because the other currencies are really all that strong, we're talking about the end of the dollar as a reserve currency because we are behaving like idiots.
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This makes sense, except that we've been spending with wild abandon since (at least) Reagan. If we've managed to keep it afloat that long, why is it so improbable that we might continue to do so for another decade or two (or longer)?
(I'm not sure myself either way, just playing devil's advocate.)
There's been a sea change in the "wild abandon" in the past few years: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-federal-government-outlays... (Look carefully at the X and Y axes; that's not a traditional chart and time is not X or Y. But it's one of the more interesting ones I came up with.) Bush started it, Obama made pretty sounding noises about fixing it but has doubled down on it, and shows no signs of stopping even though the "recession" excuse is fading away.
Re:Why the Dollar's Reign Is Near an End
by dantheman on Wednesday March 02, 2011 @02:21PM
(#2280796)
Interest on the debt, currently it's about 200 Billion (10% of tax receipts). In 2020, it will be 800 Billion (40% of the federal budget), if you add in medicare and SS then boom you're over 100%. Exponential growth while slow at the start, can relatively quickly become quite large.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/interest-expense-on-the-us-de...