The people who are currently sick will either recover or die. Lock down can make the effective R0 below 1. When it is below 1 the disease will die on its own. Of course we would have to be locked for a very long time, but even if we won't wait that long the active infection curve will go down and buy us some time.
Re:Coronavirus and Credibility
by s1artibartfast on Tuesday April 07, 2020 @04:34AM
(#22801403)
The disease will never die out on its own. The question raised is hat are we waiting for and how long are we willing to wait for it.
If the answer is that we are waiting for nothing, perhaps we shouldn't.
If the answer is that we are waiting in lock-down 1-2 years for a vaccine and vaccinations, maybe we shouldn't.
I think this is clear for most people. I'm not American but I've watched Trump recent talk and they explained this clearly in a way everybody could understand.
What they didn't explain though is the post-lockdown strategy.
Most likely, in a few weeks, only a small fraction of the US population will be immune, and the problem won't be solved anymore than it was before the lockdown (except that the country is stalled). The virus will still be there, and there won't be any vaccine. I'd like them to think a few steps ahead and tell us what will be their plan.