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A comment on Coronavirus and Credibility. Parent comment

Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by nullc on Monday April 06, 2020 @06:54AM (#22792537)
That argument no longer works when we're seeing highly infected regions with significant increases in their _all cause_ mortality rate, e.g. https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20... https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/01/virus-deaths-...
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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by diryawish on Monday April 06, 2020 @07:06AM (#22792623)
Italy’s death rates are up 20% when comparing this year’s average to a typical year’s whole average. This way of comparing averages may skew the information. In America, we have more average daily deaths in the beginning of the year than in the middle and end until December. The average of January through March will always be higher than the yearly average.
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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by amenod on Monday April 06, 2020 @07:48AM (#22792848)
This!

This is the latest data published by the Italian Ministry of Health. Looking at the chart on the second page, try to ignore the lines (we all know there is an infinite amount of ways one can approximate a curve to the dots) and just observe the dots. Does this seem like a bad year to you? Compared to winter 2016/17?

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/SISMG_sintesi_ULTIMO....

Also note that all the charts are misleading since they don't start with 0 (the effect is exaggerated).

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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by kgwgk on Monday April 06, 2020 @03:28PM (#22796955)
"What the official figures don’t say. They don’t say that in March 2020 more than 5.400 people have died in Bergamo province, 4.500 of which due to coronavirus. Six times more than the previous year."

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronaviru...

Doesn't that seem like a bad year to you?

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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by takeda on Monday April 06, 2020 @02:29PM (#22796408)
What are you talking about? The spike started in mid March, that's just a single data point on that graph.
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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by akvadrako on Monday April 06, 2020 @08:37AM (#22793153)
It does because regional fluctuations don't warrant a widespread overreaction.

Overall mortality for Europe is lower than during most flu seasons:

https://www.euromomo.eu/

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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by graeme on Monday April 06, 2020 @02:28PM (#22796396)
That’s for week 13. I expect france would be higher now.

Week 13 is march 22-28 if I counted right. Deaths lag cases. French Coronavirus deaths went from 674 on the 22nd, to 2314 on the 28th, to 8078 yesterday april 5th.

I would say your comment is premature.

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Re:Coronavirus and Credibility by takeda on Monday April 06, 2020 @02:35PM (#22796463)
Because if no coronavirus this would be rather a good year. The December-February looked better than on average.

The thing you are missing though is that crisis started mid March. It feels like forever (because of shelter at home), but it is a very short time and every few days the number of cases doubles. Most of that doesn't register on graphs that spans multiple years (look at the dates).

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