Re:All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
by watwut on Sunday April 05, 2020 @04:23PM
(#22788373)
Wasn't ot explicitely worst case? No measures taken and so on? The imperial articles are free to download and all I have read had assumptions stated very clearly.
Re:All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
by not2b on Sunday April 05, 2020 @04:00PM
(#22788161)
We can't rerun the experiment with a control version of the US in which nothing was shut down and we continued to have crowded sports events and night life. So it won't be possible to determine that the 2.2 million deaths scenario is impossible, especially if it's interpreted as 2.2 million extra deaths from either COVID-19 or other causes that could have been treatable by a medical system that wasn't completely overwhelmed.
Re:All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
by guscost on Monday April 06, 2020 @11:18AM
(#22794481)
I’m extremely pissed off at these folks who built an unfalsifiable model, panicked the whole world, and will now pretend that it is “science” as they ignore and downplay the death and destruction that follows in the wake of their foolishness. This will not stand.
If that scenario was “completely wrong” too, it seems like it would serve as a perfect example of the consequences of this kind of (still hypothetical) misinformation.