Re:All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
by martingoodson on Sunday April 05, 2020 @03:27PM
(#22787870)
That's not really a fair representation. (Harvard epidemiologist) Marc Lipsitch raised the alarm back in February: "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year."
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
Likewise now with hydroxychloroquine--if you listen to the epidemiologists all you'd hear is how it's an UNPROVEN drug. What we need instead is coverage of sample sizes, p values, bayesian predictions of effectiveness (in the absence of controlled studies) and serious modeling of the number of ICU beds and ventilators required with and without various levels of treatment, from emergency care to prophylactic use.
The epidemiologists have their head in the sand and think we can just wait 6 months for a proper set of randomized trials. It's the less attached data modelers you need to turn to get predictions that are useful for effective policy choices.