Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will last, health experts say

Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l... by dkarl on Friday April 03, 2020 @03:28PM (#22773125)

Thanks for the link, that was a fascinating watch, but I don't think they're modeling a return to normal life there. They assume a transmission rate that is decreased by social distancing measures, and they leave the transmission rate constant over time. I think that means they are modeling what happens if we continue the same social distancing practices indefinitely, rather than a return to normal life.

Another way of looking at it is that they are modeling herd immunity under social distancing, which is achieved at a lower infection rate than herd immunity under normal social behavior.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l... by eesmith on Friday April 03, 2020 @03:46PM (#22773292)

I believe it's the latter - a fast spread will overshoot past the minimum herd immunity, while a slower spread won't, thus resulting in fewer overall deaths and ICU visits.

In other words, shrinking the area under the curve while flattening the curve.

Of course, that's a highly simplified model, might not be true, etc., etc. But it gives me, a leftist, some support for my belief that some "social distancing for as long as it takes" is a more reasonable viewpoint than no social distancing.

(I replaced "strict" with "some" because I prefer the Swedish model - see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22768170 . I just haven't a clue for how things will turn out.)

[ Parent | on HN ]