Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by cameldrv on Friday April 03, 2020 @03:27PM
(#22773122)
Agreed that we're better off overdoing it, but we can't just stay indoors forever.
I don't agree that we can get herd immunity without mass death. First, the fatality rate is still high even with medical care. Second, it would take years to process everyone that needs to get it through proper medical care.
Finally, to do the flatten the curve strategy, you need to get R0 at exactly 1.0. Too high and it blows up again. But if you get it a little too low, and you keep it there for a while, the virus just dies out. If we're capable of keeping R0 at exactly 1.0 for five years, we're certainly capable of keeping it at 0.95 for two years until we have a vaccine.
I don't agree that we can get herd immunity without mass death. First, the fatality rate is still high even with medical care. Second, it would take years to process everyone that needs to get it through proper medical care.
Finally, to do the flatten the curve strategy, you need to get R0 at exactly 1.0. Too high and it blows up again. But if you get it a little too low, and you keep it there for a while, the virus just dies out. If we're capable of keeping R0 at exactly 1.0 for five years, we're certainly capable of keeping it at 0.95 for two years until we have a vaccine.