Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by mdemare on Friday April 03, 2020 @03:12PM
(#22772982)
Nembro, Italy. Pop. 11000, 152 deaths. 1.38% of the population died. In March.
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by sershe on Saturday April 04, 2020 @02:05AM
(#22776519)
Isn't that the part of Italy where hospital collapse actually happened? And in the same article they conjecture they are now at ~herd immunity. And the demographics are skewed towards the elderly so again they themselves estimated the death rate being consistent with 1%, age-adjusted. And they counted ALL the surplus dead.
This is an upper bound of the absolute worst case, as far as I can tell.
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by mdemare on Saturday April 04, 2020 @08:06AM
(#22777789)
Nobody there is going to die in April from covid?
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by sershe on Saturday April 04, 2020 @09:29PM
(#22783022)
They are past the peak (again based on the info from the original article), so it doesn't seem likely the numbers will change a lot; not to the level of 6%/3%/other numbers being suggested in other sources.
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by treis on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:42PM
(#22774207)
A small town doesn't really count as a "part" of a country.
It's also probably just a statistical outlier. Even if the overall IFR is 0.5% you will see some areas with rates higher or lower than that from chance or their demographics.
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by CydeWeys on Saturday April 04, 2020 @08:28AM
(#22777863)
It's still early on in the pandemic. The vast majority of the people who will die from it still haven't yet. It's way too early to be putting ceilings on the overall death rate.
Re:Americans are underestimating how long disruptions will l...
by LorenPechtel on Friday April 03, 2020 @04:19PM
(#22773555)
I believe there are more examples, but that is one of them.
Which parts are that?