On “Armchair Epidemiology”

Re:On “Armchair Epidemiology” by bJGVygG7MQVF8c on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:41PM (#22734478)

> I sent a quick reply two minutes later:

> For now, I think the risk from the ordinary flu is much much greater! But worth watching to see if it becomes a real pandemic.

Nope. Lost all credibility right there. Do not pass GO, do not collect 2 minutes of attention. Sorry.

Oh, you've learned something from the error and you've updated your priors? Great, good for you. You're still unreliable.

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Re:On “Armchair Epidemiology” by AlexMennen on Monday March 30, 2020 @11:06PM (#22734586)

This seems overly harsh. Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4, so this standard makes almost everyone have no credibility, including people who don't admit to the error. All humans are unreliable.

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Re:On “Armchair Epidemiology” by defen on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @02:31AM (#22735364)

Here's a blog post from February 6 by Greg Cochran, one of the people mentioned. Looks pretty good in retrospect https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/strategy-not-the-f...

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Re:On “Armchair Epidemiology” by bJGVygG7MQVF8c on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @01:18PM (#22739842)

> Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4

Plenty who were paying attention took it seriously

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