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Re:Covid-19 Sanity – Covid-19 papers from bioRxiv/medRxiv se... by acqq on Monday March 30, 2020 @11:32AM (#22728794)
There was however a perfect environment which allowed us to have an idea of percentages:

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...

And the percentage of really asymptotic cases is much lower than the most here expect.

All the tests in all the countries could be seen as the statistical sampling. The speed of the transmission is also known, and surely not fundamentally different than the speed of people needing hospital or dying -- the doubling time is nowhere faster than 2 days, and the typical is 3 days.

In short, it can't be expected that "already everybody has it" in the positive sense of "nothing will happen."

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