Yes, currently the tight oil industry could be in a good shape, because drilling a well is very cheap (about US$ 5 millions), without the trillions of debts it amassed. The problem may unroll like this:

- demand is destroyed by coronavirus - prices go down (maybe as low as $10 a barrel according to some analysts) - existing wells maybe kept pumping, or not - new drilling stops, ditto exploration, etc. - cash flow in tight oil industry falls to about zero - huge debt (trillions) can't be paid back, companies go belly up, banks must be rescued by the Fed...

several scenarii open up from there: would the Fed rescue the oil companies? may the government nationalise the oil industry? What can be the impact on US$? On US debt? financial markets? Who knows, all bets are off at this point.

The crucial moment will be there: in the few months between this moment when the shale oil industry defaults on its debt, and when it's bought back (debt free, therefore in a sane situation), there may be a large gap in production, that could kill world oil demand by sending prices through the ceiling ($100 barrel? $120? $150?) because normal demand can't be fulfilled by conventional production anymore.

Lots of graphs here: https://jancovici.com/en/energy-transition/oil/when-does-the...

I myself have no particular expertise, but I've been following quite closely oil and energy since 2005.