Re:Show HN: Understanding the Monty Hall paradox through code
by millstone on Sunday March 29, 2020 @06:29AM
(#22717800)
I'm the host, and I also happen to be blind. I chose 98 doors and none of them have the car - terrible luck on my part! But probably this lends some credence to your initial guess?
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Re:Show HN: Understanding the Monty Hall paradox through code
by Retric on Sunday March 29, 2020 @10:15AM
(#22719152)
This is correct, but based on specific assumptions. If the host flipped a coin and selected a door and 1/Nth of the time it had the car then you switching would not change your odds.
Similarly, an adversarial host who sometimes opens a door and sometimes just shows you your choice can similarly mess with the odds.
Itβs really due to the host both being forced to show a door and knowing which door to choose that you gain from leveraging that knowledge.
Re:Show HN: Understanding the Monty Hall paradox through code
by roenxi on Sunday March 29, 2020 @07:03AM
(#22717974)
No, if the host is acting randomly no information was revealed. It is equally likely that the car is behind your door or the other door.
The player are indifferent to switching under your scenario. Why not, I suppose?
Re:Show HN: Understanding the Monty Hall paradox through code
by andischo on Sunday March 29, 2020 @06:45AM
(#22717877)
That is also a very interesting way to think about it, if I understood you correctly. Seeing the host as another player, any "bad luck" he has, should translate into myself having a higher chance of success if used correctly.
Re:Show HN: Understanding the Monty Hall paradox through code
by hanoz on Sunday March 29, 2020 @07:42AM
(#22718185)
With the host as another blind player, his opening of 98 goat doors only increases the probability you were right from 0.01 to 0.5, so still makes no difference for you to change. But of course the original version of the problem is predicated on the host knowing where the car is and only revealing goats.