Re:Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by country
by quietbritishjim on Sunday March 29, 2020 @07:05AM
(#22717981)
The graph doesn't make much sense without a bit of explanation. (It certainly didn't to me, anyway.) The minutephysics video linked to from cptroot's comment, and also here [1] for your convenience, does a great job of that.
In short, you're right it's not surprising that the lines are log-log linear for uncontrolled growth of the virus, and that it's similar for lot of countries. What's interesting is the few (so far) cases where it drops below that log-log linear line, which indicates a containment strategy that's starting to work.
Re:Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by country
by heavenlyblue on Sunday March 29, 2020 @08:16AM
(#22718339)
But that containment strategy isn't working for Italy at all.
Re:Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by country
by fxj on Sunday March 29, 2020 @08:37AM
(#22718480)
It takes at least 2 weeks until the number of deaths starts to decrease. Look at the graph in the weeks to come and you will notice the difference.
Re:Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by country
by heavenlyblue on Monday March 30, 2020 @02:52PM
(#22731004)
They’ve started containment 9th March, how is that now two weeks ago?
Re:Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by country
by dfmooreqqq on Sunday March 29, 2020 @10:16AM
(#22719165)
> “Lots of distributions give you straight-ish lines on a log-log plot”
I agree. I don't remember the last time I've seen a log-log plot that doesn't look linear. I've never found a lot of use in them for actually illuminating much.
Because taking the logarithm is such an equalizing operator, I also doubt whether it is surprising that lines seem to overlap for each country. Zooming in, there still is a difference of about 20% in new cases/total reported cases between countries, even in the range of 5k-10k total confirmed cases. Taken over the course of multiple days, that can make quite a difference.