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A comment on New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough. Parent comment

Re:New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown... by amylene on Saturday March 28, 2020 @12:39PM (#22712256)
When you say, very likely, can you put a percent on it so we know if you mean 20% or 80%?
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Re:New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown... by SpicyLemonZest on Saturday March 28, 2020 @12:50PM (#22712330)
I mean 80%, although I have a bias here because I'd be one of the people trying to make it happen.
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Re:New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown... by amylene on Saturday March 28, 2020 @01:02PM (#22712421)
Super interesting, thanks for replying!

So you are aware that your estimate is biased because of your other beliefs, but you don’t try to fix that? Mind if I ask why?

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Re:New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown... by SpicyLemonZest on Saturday March 28, 2020 @01:04PM (#22712445)
Sorry, no, I may have been unclear. I don't know that my estimate is biased - I believe I've properly adjusted for my other beliefs and desires - but I can't know for sure I adjusted correctly so it would be misleading for me to present an estimate as though I'm a dispassionate observer.
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Re:New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown... by amylene on Saturday March 28, 2020 @02:22PM (#22713126)
Our best guesses are the best we can do. Are you familiar with the research around the bias bias? Or the fact that smart people tend to be more subject to biases?
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