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A comment on Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?. Parent comment
My thought experiments have been hand-wavy expected value calculations like this: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))
0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072
and cost of failure is, well, infinite.
That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.
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My thought experiments have been hand-wavy expected value calculations like this: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))
0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072
and cost of failure is, well, infinite.
That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.