Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:...
by feral on Thursday March 26, 2020 @08:55PM
(#22699546)
On the 'essential workers' bit:
Worth being clear that it is not necessary to completely eliminate every case of the virus.
If the natural r0 is 3, and you eliminate roughly 3/4 of each person's contacts, we've won.
You can break these links by things like social distancing, wearing PPE, better hygiene, better contact tracing and isolation, immunity, or closing some portions of the economy.
In theory, I'd be surprised if the essential workers cant work while keeping r0 low enough for it to die out.
It's not clear how hard it is to get this r0 sufficiently down. Different countries are experimenting with different strategies.
Worth being clear that it is not necessary to completely eliminate every case of the virus.
If the natural r0 is 3, and you eliminate roughly 3/4 of each person's contacts, we've won.
You can break these links by things like social distancing, wearing PPE, better hygiene, better contact tracing and isolation, immunity, or closing some portions of the economy.
In theory, I'd be surprised if the essential workers cant work while keeping r0 low enough for it to die out.
It's not clear how hard it is to get this r0 sufficiently down. Different countries are experimenting with different strategies.