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A comment on Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: 1918 Flu. Parent comment

Re:Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Intervention... by yibg on Thursday March 26, 2020 @07:03PM (#22698890)
But even if we assume it's no more deadly than a bad flu, doesn't it being novel and hence no immunity at all in the population, give it a much higher impact than the flu?

I mean regardless of the actual CFR and R0 value, we can take a look at Wuhan, Spain, Italy and now increasingly likely NY to see the impact. I'm not an expert but I don't think a bad seasonal flu overwhelms the local hospitals. And this is with extraordinary measures being taken to boost hospital capacity already.

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Re:Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Intervention... by guscost on Thursday March 26, 2020 @07:30PM (#22699085)
> I don't think a bad seasonal flu overwhelms the local hospitals.

Happens all the time, most recently during the 2017-2018 season in parts of the US: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...

Also keep in mind that COVID-19 would be quite a bit more contagious than the flu (so it would spread more rapidly) if this theory is correct.

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