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A comment on Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model revises model. Parent comment

Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by jtbayly on Thursday March 26, 2020 @04:25PM (#22697603)
Not necessarily. If transmissibility is high, you could be seeing close to the peak.

The data out of NY that makes me most suspicious of this new model is actually the 72% negative rate on tests. I would expect that to be a lot lower. But that's just a gut feeling.

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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by salmon30salmon on Thursday March 26, 2020 @04:33PM (#22697689)
Half of those 72% may have had it three weeks ago and are a-ok now. Without testing for antibodies, all we can say is they do not _currently actively have an infection._
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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by DanBC on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:23PM (#22698132)
The tests have pretty high false negative rates. https://twitter.com/cynthiaccox/status/1242868006293843971/p...
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