What are these everything else’s? By far the best predictor of patient mortality has been age. What else is it about the Diamond Princess population that would come even close, even in sum, to the predictive power of their age?
Isn't it a bit disingenuous to use a city with 89 cases as being statistically significant?
The population size isn't that big indeed, but it's still multiple times larger than the cruise ship.
Which cruise ship? Diamond Princess had ~3600 occupants (passengers and crew).
How can you consider the fatality rate over an uninfected population? A year ago 8 billion peoples were not infected and 0 died! I have no idea why we worry. /s
What's matter for the fatality rate is the 89 persons infected, which isn't statistically significant.
There are only two known populations in which everyone was forced to be tested and their movement was limited, which thus makes up a controlled study: the Diamond Princess and the town of Vo in Italy. In both cases the fatality rate is much less than 1%. In fact in Vo it was zero.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradic...
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...
In prior pandemics like this one the final fatality rate ended up being much lower than the initial reports: like an order of magnitude lower. So we would expect to see the same this time.
0.1% or less is well within the bounds of possibility, as the essay by Ioannadis explains.