Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a black swan event?

Posted by tylordurden on Wednesday March 25, 2020 @07:11PM
from the ask-hn dept.

( 2 comments | 2 points | on HN )

Re:Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a bla... by haspoken on Wednesday March 25, 2020 @08:33PM (#22689822)

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Based on the author's criteria:

    1) The event is a surprise (to the observer).
    2) The event has a major effect.
    3) After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.

It fails on the surprise aspect. Pandemics are expected. Failure to prepare for them does not make it a surprise.

List of epidemics from wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a bla... by PaulHoule on Wednesday March 25, 2020 @07:46PM (#22689549)

Yes

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