To be frank, I made similar predictions. I knew exactly what kind of virus this was, but I kind of assumed the US government was preparing this whole time.

It was only towards mid-to-late February that I could see we had a problem, when none of the expected government responses happened, or happened weeks after they would have been helpful.

He made that prediction on 19th, three days ago. Either he isn't following the numbers or he predicts a total shutdown and a cure.

Maybe if he's a genius it's possible for him to make "meta-level" predictions e.g. "research for cure is accelerated by 100% for every mortality %", and thus actually the epidemic severity would always be balanced by a faster cure.

In any case, the prediction contradicts his views that the shutdown is unnecessary.