Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by throwaway_pdp09 on Saturday March 21, 2020 @07:42AM
(#22645877)
Original poster. I'm from the UK. Looking at the curves only and leaving out politics completely, the UK curve is by far the slowest growing of the 3, for whatever reason. It's the US that has the most to fear at this point, of the 3 countries.
Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by notahacker on Saturday March 21, 2020 @08:16AM
(#22646030)
UK policy is "testing for coronavirus is not needed if you are staying at home" for symptomatic suspected cases, so it's likely our stats are a bigger underestimate of actual infections than many other countries
Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by acqq on Saturday March 21, 2020 @07:57AM
(#22645933)
UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the growth characteristic remained the same across the countries with different policies, and it can be observed, from China and Italy, how long it takes for any policy to decrease the growth. Then check and compare the Italian measures with the UK for your estimate when the UK curve will flatten in the weeks that follow. When the flattening will start will indeed make a huge difference in the direct impact of the virus (the number of ill and dead) between the countries, due to the growth characteristics being what they are. Also see my other posts.
The number of "cases" reflects at the moment the capabilities of the whole medical system in each country (it's dependent on who is selected to be tested at all) and the tests used. The number of deaths hides less. Also, even if the specific numbers can't be compared 1 to 1 across the countries, the characteristics of the curves can.
The growth is fast but it is comparable, and the measures take time to affect it.
Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by dnh44 on Saturday March 21, 2020 @08:47AM
(#22646163)
It’s taking a week for them to get test results at the NHS. So currently today’s results are from last weeks tests.
Of course that’s assuming the labs doing the testing are doing it first in first out.
Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by DanBC on Saturday March 21, 2020 @08:12AM
(#22646004)
The UK stopped testing anyone unless they were admitted to hospital for suspected coronavirus.
Re:The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
by logicchains on Saturday March 21, 2020 @08:17AM
(#22646039)
>Pushing any country through this is a huge and utterly irresponsible risk.
It's a risk, but the amount of hardship all the people who lose their jobs and business will endure if an indefinite lockdown is implemented is an absolute certainty. Poverty has lasting, lifelong negative health impacts.
The problem isn't just that a lot of people will die because the health system is swamped. That's hardly good news, but when you have a high peak you have a lot of people ill at the same time. And that means you run the risk of losing a significant percentage of critical workers in essential services including food, utilities, logistics, and IT.
Some will die, some will "just" be very ill and unable to work for 2-4 weeks. If you're lucky the numbers of seriously ill will be low enough to keep things running. Beyond that you're on a scale from frightening inconvenience and breakdown in some locations to the economic equivalent of critical organ failure.
Pushing any country through this is a huge and utterly irresponsible risk.