Re:State projections for Covid-19
by Scipio_Afri on Saturday March 21, 2020 @02:26AM
(#22644937)
Could you explain your reasoning or evidence for saying “ I'm optimistic that that speed of development of both treatments and vaccines will exceed the consensus expectations.” or is it just a feeling?
Re:State projections for Covid-19
by nate_meurer on Saturday March 21, 2020 @03:08AM
(#22645097)
Just a feeling. I used to work in medical device testing, so I'm familiar with the layers of regulation that weigh down the pipeline. Even in normal times there's debate about whether it's too onerous. But now a lot of that shit's going to be cut out. For example, Moderna is skipping the animal safety trials, and starting with phase 1 human testing straight away. They say animal testing will proceed in parallel if a special new breed of mouse is ready in time.
This, along with recent advancements in bioengineering will, I believe, lead to surprisingly rapid progress.
(The best current mouse models for human coronavirus are not very good; the mice are generally resistant to the virus, so it's difficult to determine whether a vaccine or treatment is working.)
Curious about this new breed of mice you mentioned - what's special about it.
Re:State projections for Covid-19
by nate_meurer on Saturday March 21, 2020 @04:35PM
(#22649827)
We learned from the SARS epidemic that there are no naturally occurring animals that match humans in terms of receptiveness to the virus, direct symptoms, and immune-enhanced damage. Here are a couple of articles that explain better than I can:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-labs-scrambl...
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/researchers-rush-to-star...
- Gilead Sciences; remdesivir for treatment; currently in phase 3 clinical trials
- Ascletis Pharma; danoprevir/ritonavir for treatment; currently in phase 1 clinical trials
- Moderna Therapeutics; mRNA vaccine; currently in phase 1 clinical trials
- CanSino Biologics; attenuated vaccine; currently in phase 1 clinical trials
- Arcturus Therapeutics; hybrid RNA vaccine; currently preclinical
- BioNTech; mRNA vaccine; currently preclinical
- CureVac; mRNA vaccine; currently preclinical
- Eli Lilly; isolated antibody treatment; currently preclinical
- GlaxoSmithKline; vaccine adjuvants; currently preclinical
- Inovio Pharmaceuticals; DNA-based vaccine; currently preclinical
- Johnson & Johnson; attenuated vaccine; currently preclinical
- Pfizer; assistance with both vaccines and treatments
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals; engineered antibody treatment; currently preclinical
- Sanofi; hybrid DNA-based attentuated virus vaccine; currently preclinical
- Takeda; isolated antibody treatment; currently preclinical
- Vir Biotechnology; isolated antibody treatment; currently preclinical
Most of these are in very early stages, but I'm optimistic that that speed of development of both treatments and vaccines will exceed the consensus expectations.