I think early on, it was assumed ARDS was the worst outcome; your lungs stopped functioning and ventilation would tide you over.
But the more we dig in, there are multiple systems failing and ARDS is just one of many destructive processes going on.
This is one of the really important data points to work out. If almost everyone ventilated will die... it makes no sense for hospitals to extensively treat this way. Give people palliative care. It directs resources away from other, more productive efforts... for example ... running clinical trails on potential treatments to PREVENT ARDS/sepsis.
Pay everyone who contracts Coronavirus in the next 4 months and is refused ICU care, $100,000. If they die, the amount is divided between their surviving immediate family members or previously registered carer.
The current panic seems to be driven by the guilt of not being able to treat everyone. This payment should alleviate that guilt and allow us to continue with life.
non-COVID mortality is typically a coin-toss: https://www.google.com/search?q=mortality+rate+ventilators