Re:Ask HN: Isolation (from coronavirus) is only a temporary ...
by gus_massa on Friday March 20, 2020 @10:01AM
(#22637554)
edited> Isolation is only a temporary band-aid
Yep :(
> Getting 220 million people exposed, at a rate of 1 million per month [...] would take almost 20 years.
There are too many uncertain details, so it could be 10 or 30 or 5 o ... Also, there is hopefully some work to solve the bottlenecks (like ventilators, or soon the overworked nurses and doctors), so the number of ill people that don't overwhelm the health system can grow and reduce the duration of the problem.
> Finding, creating, distributing and vaccinating 220 million people would take a number of years?
Probably two years if someone promise to pay the bill. There are some prototypes and some optimistic estimations say 18 month. Don't expect to see the vaccine in less than a year, but hopefully it will be finished in two years.
> If we miss 1 person out of 330 million in the US, that 1 person will start the entire cycle again.
The isolation can work at the state or county level, that is easier to control and you can move some extra resources to the area. If the number of ill people is small enough you can isolate the person, whoever meet her/him, and whoever meet the persons that meet her/him. This is used with other illness, but it's easier if you have a vaccine to create a few concentrically rings of immunized people.
Yep :(
> Getting 220 million people exposed, at a rate of 1 million per month [...] would take almost 20 years.
There are too many uncertain details, so it could be 10 or 30 or 5 o ... Also, there is hopefully some work to solve the bottlenecks (like ventilators, or soon the overworked nurses and doctors), so the number of ill people that don't overwhelm the health system can grow and reduce the duration of the problem.
> Finding, creating, distributing and vaccinating 220 million people would take a number of years?
Probably two years if someone promise to pay the bill. There are some prototypes and some optimistic estimations say 18 month. Don't expect to see the vaccine in less than a year, but hopefully it will be finished in two years.
> If we miss 1 person out of 330 million in the US, that 1 person will start the entire cycle again.
The isolation can work at the state or county level, that is easier to control and you can move some extra resources to the area. If the number of ill people is small enough you can isolate the person, whoever meet her/him, and whoever meet the persons that meet her/him. This is used with other illness, but it's easier if you have a vaccine to create a few concentrically rings of immunized people.