Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee...
by jMyles on Friday March 20, 2020 @04:09AM
(#22635905)
Oh heck yeah, the CFR can be closer if there isn't capacity to help people who can be saved by intervention.
But the specific flaw in the 3.4% number is that the denominator was calculated without any real basis for believing that the number of confirmed cases was close to the number of cases (or that it was similarly close in various regions).
That's the part I want to see revisited, and which is of course the topic of a great deal of discourse over the past 48 hours or so.
It's already been linked elsewhere in the thread, but here's one of the widely-circulated commentaries calling the 3.4% CFR into question (in fact making the case that it's meaningless):
But the specific flaw in the 3.4% number is that the denominator was calculated without any real basis for believing that the number of confirmed cases was close to the number of cases (or that it was similarly close in various regions).
That's the part I want to see revisited, and which is of course the topic of a great deal of discourse over the past 48 hours or so.
It's already been linked elsewhere in the thread, but here's one of the widely-circulated commentaries calling the 3.4% CFR into question (in fact making the case that it's meaningless):
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...