hospitals will be overcrowded so your "normal" USA death rate will actually increase because the people who would normally receive medical attention will no longer receive it.

"my" death rate? My "normal" death rate? What are you saying?

There will be overlap between people who die of diseases routinely (the elderly, the immuno-compromised, and those with underlying conditions, and the unlucky) and those who die of this disease. No matter, the point still stands - if 100,000 people dying is what it takes to change people's behaviour significantly, that ought to happen every month, and it doesn't.