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A comment on CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 weeks [pdf]. Parent comment

Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee... by efavdb on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:05AM (#22634757)
Your analysis could go wrong if the two diseases have different rates of spread. Eg to continue your most favorable example that everyone in Italy has covid now, the death rate could be order the deaths so far over total population. The flu takes three months to burn out, had a death rate of 25k / population, assuming everyone got that.
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Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee... by bugzz on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:20AM (#22634848)
That is true. But I think it shows the impossibility of a fatality rate half that of the flu. At least one small Italian town tested every resident, and had 3% positive rate. And more than 80% of cases are unresolved, so many more deaths will come, even from just the cases they've already found.
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