Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee...
by bugzz on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:06AM
(#22634763)
I agree, I used 3 months, 1/4, worst year, etc. specifically to show that COVID-19 has to be at least that bad. I agree that it's likely far far worse.
Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee...
by sgc on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:26AM
(#22634874)
Another scary comparison is to overall mortality from all causes. 475/1734 (based on 633,000 deaths in 2018) is equal to 27% of all other deaths per day in Italy, period. If/when it takes off outside of Lombardia, it could well be 100%+.
However flu does not overwhelm ICU and there are tangential deaths from lack of available healthcare which might double these numbers. Who knows, but it not going to be insignificant at all.
edit: In fact I see Italy counts flu season from October to February inclusive, so I think my estimate is correct.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalit...