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Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee... by epistasis on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:24PM (#22634433)
I don't know a single scientist that thinks that Ioannidis is on the right track there. He's known for being a contrarian, which can be a useful thing. But it certainly doesn't make him right, in fact he's quite likely wrong. And he's absolutely wrong, as he's not managing risk, but looking to make the minimum deviance from normal activity. Ie a very foolish take. It's sad that Stat News publishes that in this time. But at least they published this the next day:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-ac...

Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee... by wahern on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:36PM (#22634559)
He can't be wrong because he deftly avoids making any conclusions. All he's expressing is doubt and uncertainty, which is 2/3rds of FUD.

I think it goes without saying that the numbers we have (whichever ones you choose) are wrong, even to an order of magnitude or more. But the responsible, constructive way during an emergency to express a contrarian opinion is by identifying facts and crafting reasoned conclusions. That includes doing enough due diligence to have some reasonable confidence that you understand the premises behind the public authorities' responses. For example, the clean data he wants to see might not even exist. Telling a blind man that he's blind isn't helpful; he knows that and is presumably (hopefully) making decisions accordingly, such as keeping a wide berth to any potential hazards.

Here's a small handful of what we do know, independent of the cold, hard, vanilla statistics on SARS-CoV-2 that we'd all like to have: Italy is experiencing a public health crisis, whether justified by the number of deaths or not; two national lawmakers in Iran have died (how many die annually of seasonal flu?); Wuhan was no joke; initial outbreak in the U.S. so far seems to align with its evolution elsewhere. All these things are also evidence that can and should be part of drafting early responses. These aren't population mortality rates, r0, infection fatality rates, or the like, but evidence nonetheless; evidence that should be heeded in the absence of more concrete quantitative evidence.

Re:CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 wee... by jdminhbg on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:39PM (#22634575)
> And he's absolutely wrong, as he's not managing risk, but looking to make the minimum deviance from normal activity.

Disease is not the only risk here. People will die from a severe recession. It's important to realize that there are tradeoffs, and to be sure we're making the right ones.