Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by nardi on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:46AM
(#22602662)
> "Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions.
Just wanted to boost this. With a range of 1–14 days, it's possible for close to 50% of infections to only incubate for ~1 day, and still have a mean of 5.6 days for incubation. Without knowledge of the distribution, the mean means nothing.
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by nardi on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:28PM
(#22607453)
Just realized I understated this. It's actually possible for 64.6% of infections to only incubate for 1 day and get a mean of 5.6 days, if the other 35.4% of infections incubate for 14 days (i.e. an extremely bimodal distribution at 1 and 14 days).
It's possible I picked it up elsewhere, and less likely that I have something else with these unique symptoms (I've never a had fever without nasal congestion or gastrointestinal symptoms before). However, I think it makes sense I would be at the lower incubation period range due to the high level of contact with said suspect and the fact that I'm an otherwise healthy young adult, which as I understand it can lead to the immune system reacting faster.