Yup. And the worst-case scenario is infections peaking next winter to coincide with regular 'flu season.
An Imperial College paper [1] out today predicts this under its most stringent suppression scenario; see the chart on page 10.
[1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
Exactly. People seem to be mistaking the incubation period (~two weeks) for the length of time the pandemic will last (months at minimum).
It's impossible to have a perfect quarantine, so if we were to all go back to normal after a month, the pandemic growth curve will pick up where it left off. Exiting the lockdown will need to be done super carefully to avoid this outcome.
As far as I can tell, this is probably going to be the new normal until we have a vaccine.