It’ll take time, too many will die, but instead of remembering that most folks will likely complain about being stuck at home.
Weddings/concerts/flights are all cancelled and the only way to get things back on track is to shelter in place long enough for us to get testing up and running and to isolate the virus.
Half measures in this situation just won’t cut it and the longer we take to accept that, the more will die.
Caveat: I’m a fortunate person who has the ability to work remotely. I realize that many don’t have enough savings to make it through a week, much less two months. I hope our safety net is there to support them as well as the business owners who will all be severely impacted.
Testing only really makes sense if we either can test everyone to ensure we can eradicate the virus by isolation, or if we have medication to define who should receive treatment.
I mean, if I'm feeling sick wouldn't I just proceed as if I had it? How doesn't actually knowing change anything? My course of action should be identical.
That's why everyone needs to stay home until we have enough testing to accurately determine who can safely go out.
Having the ability to test quickly means you can save hospital isolation wards from unnecessary overcrowding, because you can now know whether a person who comes in with respiratory symptoms actually has Covid-19 rather than having to treat everyone as though they might. "It means you can move from a presumptive stance to a more informed stance"[1]
If doctors know you're sick with COVID-19 and your disease is severe enough, they might offer you one of the experimental treatments for it, or you might be offered to participate in one of the hundreds of ongoing research studies.
Testing will also help determine where scarce medical resources need to be allocated, which people need to be isolated, and around which people medical personnel need to wear protective equipment.
Finally, testing will let epidemiologists track the progress of the disease and have better estimates about how severe it's going to be, and possibly predict in which communities it'll get better or worse. This will help public health officials decide where and when to declare or end quarantines/lockdowns.
[1] - https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercia...
Evidence is developing that as much as 75% of transmission events is from non-symptomatic individuals.
A good intro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM
We also may have better treatment options in the not-so-distant future, making everybody better prepared for a future spread.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Currently we're Knight Capital and our algos are blowing money. We could worry about the delay or we could turn everything off.
It seems like we need to either eradicate it 100% or develop herd immunity by exposing as many people as possible.
There is clearly value in limiting the rate of infection, but that means the shelter in place is just a rate limit, and we are in for something much longer than just a few weeks.