Re:2009 flu pandemic in the United States
by JanSt on Monday March 16, 2020 @03:07AM
(#22590668)
2% is not a conservative number. It's expected to come in at 0.1%-0.5%. That's bad enough.
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I did not seen 0.1%-0.5% estimate in any official claim. They were all 2% or above.
Re:2009 flu pandemic in the United States
by _-___________-_ on Monday March 16, 2020 @03:17AM
(#22590721)
Chief medical adviser of the UK govt claims 0.6%.
2% or above is only reached in populations that are tested sparsely. In countries that test more like South Korea and Germany* the death rate is much lower, because more infection cases are known. Italy's death rate is currently so high because only severe cases have been tested, because of limited test availability. The death rate will trend lower when more tests are performed. Germany currently has ~6000 infected and 13 death.
* even in Germany you are (at least till very recently) only tested if you show symptoms AND have been in contact with an infected person or have been to a heavily hit region).
What data supports 0.1% - 0.5%?
Numbers from Switzerland, South Korea, Germany... countries that test more people tend to have lower numbers because not only the severe cases are found.