Re:2009 flu pandemic in the United States
by jessriedel on Monday March 16, 2020 @03:05AM
(#22590656)
The CFR is much larger than the IFR in places like Italy that lack testing capacity. The IFR is what's relevant when estimating number of deaths if the virus were to spread to the ~whole population.
80% of symptomatic cases needing hospitalization seems very unlikely. That sounds like a biased testing sample that’s not even testing anyone that isn’t extremely sick. South Korean data seems vastly more comprehensive. Most data I’ve seen puts the upper bound on hospitalization rate at 20% which is still insanely high given how high the R0 is.
Re:2009 flu pandemic in the United States
by gremlinsinc on Monday March 16, 2020 @03:11AM
(#22590689)
Avg age of tests in S. Korea are around 25, avg age in Italy around 65. That makes ALL the difference.
Do you have source for people over 65 being rejected?
I read that there is some triage but this seems a lot more extreme than I imagined.
I thought it was a 20% hospitalisation rate?
Italy's CFR is over 7%. They've implemented triage in Lombardy where they won't even consider someone over the age of 65, because they're out of beds and ventilators and want to ensure patients with the best chances for survival make it.
Amongst those with symptoms, this virus has an 80% hospitalization rate.
This virus is a test, and we're going to be found severely unprepared.
Give me a moment and I'll go dig up my citations.
Edit: I was wrong about the hospitalization rate. It appears to be 20% [1]
One source cites a CFR of 5% in Italy as of two days ago. [2]
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/people-have-been-...
[2] https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-...