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Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by paulmd on Sunday March 15, 2020 @11:10PM (#22589440)
Yes, Trump is literally turning a blind eye to a plague for which most of the casualties will be his voters.

Highly ironic, but not really, because they're getting the government they voted for.

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by pmoriarty on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:44PM (#22588450)
No incumbent President has lost reelection in wartime, and this crisis has many similarities. Trump has also shown a remarkable ability to overcome crisis after crisis, and his Republican supporters don't seem to show any sign that they are losing confidence in him.

Furthermore, it's densely populated cities which are the most likely to suffer casualties, and cities tend to vote more Democratic. On the other hand, Florida (a key battleground state) has a lot of older people and tends to lean Republican, as do older people on the whole.

Trump also doesn't seem to have the most inspiring Democratic opponent in the form of Biden. On the other hand Trump has himself been abysmally unpopular.

Something else to consider is that all the Presidential candidates and the President himself are old enough to be in the high risk category for succumbing to this illness, so it's quite possible that one or more of them won't even make it to November, which would throw the election in to chaos.

On the balance, both parties have their work cut out for them if they want to win in November. It could go either way.

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by crooked-v on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:43PM (#22588851)
As morbid as it is to consider, one must note that about 3% of total fatalities from the virus are people 60 and under, while about 97% are people 60 and older.

Or, to put it another way, somebody 60 and under who catches it has about a 0.06% chance of dying, while somebody over 60 has about a 1.94% chance of dying.

Of course, this is before considering the effects of overloaded hospitals, which would be likely to skew those numbers, as younger people would have a better chance of surviving without proper medical care than older people.

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by usaar333 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:44PM (#22589272)
Your CFR numbers are likely too low across the board - about 2x off would be my guess.

Here's Wuhan's data: https://i.ibb.co/983SC13/covplot.png

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by octodog on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:26PM (#22589169)
> No incumbent President has lost reelection in wartime

This is not a particularly useful thing to say. Incumbents rarely lose anyway - it's only happened 3 times since WW2. Additionally, you have incumbents like Johnson who was so unpopular that he lost his parties' primary contest.

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by topkai22 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:42PM (#22589263)
Truman elected just not to run. Yes, the spirit of the 22nd amendment was factor, but so were his terrible poll numbers.

I don't think this is a "rally behind the flag" moment, especially because the President isn't invoking the language of national identity to get people to respond to the crisis. That could change, but it won't be super effective at this point.

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by thatcat on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:43PM (#22588849)
There is no war and the vulnerable demographic is the elderly who are all housed in group assisted living, but whatever.