It's the Japanification of the US economy, including a similar Federal debt problem (which is the single biggest reason the Fed can never raise rates back to a normal level again).
Japan still has a highly functioning country and functioning economy (one of the wealthiest and most productive on earth), even though their central bank policies and debt situation are an enormous mess.
The US has a lot of household wealth (~$100-$110 trillion) that the Fed can debase on a perpetual basis, as a never-ending band-aid. Then there is all the other dollar based wealth around the world. They can run a never-ending $80 billion per month QE program and it'll barely scratch the massive US asset base (which over time, averaged, may well outgrow a trillion dollar per year debasement). Ideally you want to see the US Government bring its irresponsible fiscal situation under control, sooner than later, so that approach doesn't have to go on for 30 or 50 years (but nobody is going to hold their breath for that). The counter is to point out that foreign actors will pull their confidence in the USD during this process (increasing the real cost for the Fed to keep doing it), whether after 10, 20, 50 years - and that may well happen, but it's impossible to forecast when. This is especially true given the currency competitors are all a mess as well, with China overloaded with debt, Japan in far worse shape than the US, and the Eurozone with no growth and their own miscellaneous debt & economic problems.
If you've downvoted me then you probably need to watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0.
This is a wet band-aid.
Also who the hell is downvoting me? LOL. If you downvote, please comment here so we can debate. I'm dying to see you defend the bull market case (even sideways to slightly up which would be best case scenario).
We don't need to merge two different ways for the financial system to collapse.
To bad for them, there's collateral damage sometimes… only the strong will survive.
I think more people would probably hope that central banks don't make bad bets anyway.
You know when you hear about Japan being this futuristic society? You go and visit and you feel like they are "ahead" and have things figured out?
Their economy is what our economy is going to look like. A short-medium term down and then long drawn out sideways market. Who knows when a recovery will be.
Good time to refinance.
Was there for a couple weeks in dec '18… kyoto, fujisan, hiroshima, tokyo… I didn't think this at all unless the "ahead" was meant in jest
> Their economy is what our economy is going to look like. A short-medium term down and then long drawn out sideways market. Who knows when a recovery will be.
So people can look forward to a 30 year bear flag? lol
> Good time to refinance.
Yeah, if you aren't already underwater facing no bids when trying to get liquid.
Tokyo is a hell of a lot more advanced than the bay area (where I grew up).
> So people can look forward to a 30 year bear flag? lol Facetiously, I don't know what you're talking about because you look like someone from /r/wsb, but I'll entertain your comment: the markets are highly manipulated and the fed is going to turn on the money machine to pump them up again.
It's all a bubble. Until you run out things to turn into bubbles.
It was always just a band-aid. The reason the Fed has had to take interest rates so low now is that they were unable to raise them during the lastest 'boom'.