Re:Please poke holes in my Covid-19 math (SF Bay Area)
by rrss on Sunday March 15, 2020 @04:53PM
(#22586670)
People do not die instantaneously when they are infected. There is potentially a multi-week lag between people showing up in the confirmed cases number and people showing up in the deaths number.
Two weeks ago, Germany had ~100 cases.
Today, Germany has 11 deaths.
Germany has a total of 57 cases with outcomes (46 of 57 recovered).
South Korea has ~900 cases with outcomes (~75 dead).
China has ~70k cases with outcomes (~3k dead).
Let's wait a few weeks before reaching conclusions about the mortality rate in Germany and using that as evidence to prove covid-19 is just a mild flu.
Deaths / cases with outcomes is an overestimate (19% for Germany). Deaths / total cases is an underestimate (0.2% for Germany). Somewhere in between is the true mortality rate.
Two weeks ago, Germany had ~100 cases. Today, Germany has 11 deaths.
Germany has a total of 57 cases with outcomes (46 of 57 recovered).
South Korea has ~900 cases with outcomes (~75 dead). China has ~70k cases with outcomes (~3k dead).
Let's wait a few weeks before reaching conclusions about the mortality rate in Germany and using that as evidence to prove covid-19 is just a mild flu.
Deaths / cases with outcomes is an overestimate (19% for Germany). Deaths / total cases is an underestimate (0.2% for Germany). Somewhere in between is the true mortality rate.